Charts
Charts

Local housing and economic charts

Every Columbus Pulse chart, grouped by what it measures. Local series come from the Central Ohio MLS and update on ; macro series come from national sources and update as each one publishes.

Data through July 26, 2026

Macro series update through the latest source release.

Macro

Rates and economic indicators

The national rates, inflation, and affordability series that move the Central Ohio market — each updated as its source publishes.
Mortgage rate
6.83%
30-yr fixed · Aug 1
Fed decision odds
42%
hold · Sep 16 meeting
Purchase apps
171
MBA index · +3% YoY
Affordability
85.2
Franklin · below the 100 line
Chapter 1

Cost of borrowing

What it costs to borrow today, and the forces pulling rates up or down.

Mortgage rates

Where borrowing costs stand.

30-year mortgage rate
6.83%
30-year fixed · as of August 1, 2026
vs 30 days
vs 90 days

The average — the single number that sets what a Columbus monthly payment buys, tracked daily by Mortgage News Daily. The chart lines up this year against last, week by week. The 30-year fixed is running about 36 basis points higher than 3 months ago, at 6.66%.

30-year mortgage rate: this year vs last

Average 30-year fixed rate, by week of year

6.83%As of Aug 1
20262025
The 30-year fixed is running about 36 basis points higher than 3 months ago, at 6.66%.

Source: Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US, weekly since 2013); latest daily print from Mortgage News Daily.

Why it matters locally

Every quarter-point move changes the monthly payment on a typical Columbus home — when rates ease, local buyers can stretch further; when they climb, competition here cools.

The lender spread

Mortgage spread over the 10-year Treasury

30-year rate minus the 10-year Treasury yield
2.15 pts
Spread over the 10-year · Normal vs its 10-year range · as of August 1, 2026

track the , but lenders add a on top for risk and profit. This chart isolates that spread — the 30-year rate minus the 10-year yield.

The spread is in its typical range — mortgage rates are tracking the 10-year Treasury about as closely as they usually do.

Mortgage spread over the 10-year Treasury

30-year fixed rate minus the 10-year Treasury yield, daily

2.15 ptsAs of Aug 1
The mortgage spread over the 10-year Treasury is 2.15 percentage points as of August 1, 2026.

Source: Mortgage News Daily (30-yr fixed) and FRED (10-yr Treasury, DGS10).

Why it matters locally

The spread is the slice of a Columbus rate that isn't the Treasury. When it's wide, local borrowers pay extra even if the 10-year holds; when it narrows, rates here can fall without the Fed moving.

Where the Fed is headed

Odds of a Fed rate change

Odds of a Fed rate change

Two forecast methodologies, priced live.

September 16, 2026Current target range: 3.50%–3.75%

Last meeting: July 29, 2026 — the Fed held the target range at 3.50%–3.75%.

Futures implied
CME FedWatch (futures implied) · as of Aug 1
Hike 25 bps
implies 3.75%–4.00%
58%
+36.0 pts vs last week
Maintain
implies 3.50%–3.75%
42%
−37.0 pts vs last week
Cut 25 bps
implies 3.25%–3.50%
4%
+2.0 pts vs last week
Prediction market
Polymarket (prediction market) · no data
Polymarket (prediction market) odds are unavailable right now.

The 10-year Treasury

10-year Treasury yield, daily

4.68%As of Jul 30
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.68% as of Jul 30.

Source: FRED (10-year Treasury constant maturity, DGS10).

Why it matters locally

Columbus mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury far more closely than the Fed's own rate. When the market grows confident the Fed will cut, the 10-year usually eases first, and local mortgage rates follow it down before the meeting arrives.

Other market odds

What else the prediction markets are pricing.

Selected Polymarket odds, last 30 days
30-yr mortgage rate market (headline discovered market; identity in meta.slug)
47%
Polymarket · as of Aug 1
US recession this year
13%
Polymarket · as of Aug 1
Inflation

Consumer inflation

Consumer inflation, year over year
3.5%
Consumer prices, year over year · as of June 1, 2026

is the change in the Consumer Price Index — the rate the Fed and the bond market react to. The lighter line is producer prices (PPI), which tend to lead it.

Consumer inflation

CPI and PPI, year-over-year change

3.5%As of Jun 1
CPI YoYPPI YoY
Consumer prices are up 3.5% year over year as of June 1, 2026; producer prices are up 10.1% as of June 1, 2026.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED (CPI, PPI).

Why it matters locally

Cooling inflation gives the Fed room to lower rates; sticky inflation keeps them high — an early tell on where next year's Columbus mortgage rates settle.

Chapter 2

Housing supply and demand

Why so few homes reach the market, and how many buyers are shopping right now.

The

The mortgage rate-lock effect

Homeowners with mortgage rates below today’s rate
66.7%
of homeowners with a mortgage hold a rate under 5%
77.9%
are locked in under 6%

Most homeowners financed or refinanced when rates were far lower than today. Selling means giving up that cheap loan and buying the next home at today’s rate.

Homeowners with mortgage rates below today’s rate

share by mortgage rate
Today’s 30-yr rate: 6.83%

Updated quarterly · as of March 31, 2026 · FHFA National Mortgage Database.

Why it matters locally: this is the single biggest reason Central Ohio has so few homes for sale — until rates fall enough to loosen these locks, local inventory stays tight and well-priced homes keep moving fast.

Buyer demand nationally

How many people are shopping for a loan.

171
Purchase-application index · as of June 29, 2026

How many people are applying for a mortgage to buy a home, measured weekly by the Mortgage Bankers Association — one of the earliest reads on buyer demand. Applications are running about 3.2% higher than a year ago.

Mortgage purchase applications

Weekly purchase-application index, this year vs last

171As of Jun 29
20262025
The weekly purchase-application index is 171 in 2026, charted against 2025 by week of year.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase-application index.

Why it matters locally

Applications are an early national read on demand that Columbus sellers tend to feel a few weeks later.

Chapter 3

Household finances

The income, affordability, and mood that decide what buyers can actually carry.

The household economy

What a typical payment costs a typical household.

Monthly principal and interest on the median Central Ohio home, as a share of median household income
30.8%
of median monthly income · as of July 26, 2026
Median Central Ohio sold price$362,500
30-year fixed rate (20% down)6.83%
Monthly principal and interest$1,896
Median household income, monthly$6,150

This is what the payment on a typical Central Ohio home costs a typical local household, each month, as a share of income. The dashed line marks the . Our line counts principal and interest only, so a household’s true burden — with taxes and insurance added — runs higher than what is shown.

Payment burden on the median Central Ohio home

Monthly principal and interest as a share of median household income, weekly

30.8%As of Jul 26
The monthly payment on the median Central Ohio home takes 30.8% of median household income as of July 26, 2026. The traditional guideline is 28%.

Median sold price: the Columbus REALTORS MLS. Rate: Freddie Mac 30-year fixed via FRED. Income: U.S. Census Bureau (ACS, Franklin County median household income).

The series runs about as far back as the daily 30-year rate history allows. Income is held at its latest annual value, so week-to-week movement in the line reflects price and rate, not income.

Why it matters locally

When this share climbs, each new Columbus buyer stretches further for the same home, and demand cools; when it eases, buying power returns even if prices hold. It is the most direct read on what a local paycheck can carry.

Is take-home pay, after inflation, keeping up?
+0.0%Real disposable income · as of May 1, 2026

Yes — take-home pay is up 0.0% from a year ago, after inflation.

Are households leaning harder on revolving credit?
+3.4%Credit card balances · as of May 1, 2026

Yes — card balances are up 3.4% from a year ago.

Affordability, national vs here

Can a typical household afford a typical home?

Affordability index · 100 = break-even
85.2
Franklin County index · as of August 1, 2026
National (FHFA)102.3

An measures whether a typical household earns enough to buy a typical home. 100 means the median household exactly affords the median home; above 100 is easier, below 100 is a stretch.

Affordability, national vs Franklin County

Affordability index, 100 = exactly affordable

85.2As of Aug 1
National (FHFA)Franklin County
The Franklin County affordability index is 85.2 as of August 1, 2026 and the national FHFA index is 102.3 as of June 1, 2026. 100 means the median household exactly affords the median home.

Franklin County affordability is derived in part from Columbus REALTORS MLS closed-sale medians. Based on information from the Columbus Association of REALTORS. National line: FHFA.

This view is clipped to the window the two series share: the national FHFA line begins only in mid-2025 under its data license, while the Franklin County series runs back to 2019 and will pair in full once the national line backfills.

Why it matters locally

The Franklin County line shows whether a typical Central Ohio household can actually afford a typical local home — the clearest read on local buying power.

Market mood

A quick read on sentiment.

Market sentiment indicators
Fear & Greed
42
+8
S&P 500
7,490
+2.4%
Homebuilders (XHB)
109
+0.9%
Home Construction (ITB)
98
+0.9%

Fear & Greed runs from 0 (fear) to 100 (greed). The homebuilder funds — XHB and ITB — show how investors price the housing sector day to day. When confidence sours, that caution reaches Columbus offers and listings weeks later. These are sentiment reads, not forecasts.

Everyday costs

Fuel and energy prices.

Fuel and energy prices
Gas at the pump
$4.10
+$0.09
per gallon · as of July 27, 2026
Crude oil (WTI)
$84.25
−$7.49
per barrel · as of July 27, 2026

The most visible weekly cost for households; teal means it fell, red means it rose.

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a weekly brief from Columbus Pulse

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