Are rates coming down?
Nobody can promise where go next — so instead of guessing, this shows what the market itself is pricing: the odds on the Fed’s next move, where the sits today, and why Columbus rates tend to move before the Fed does.
This is the current level. We only started tracking the daily 30-year here recently, so we’re not yet claiming a 30-day trend line — the market odds below are the better read on direction.
Odds of a Fed rate change
Two forecast methodologies, priced live.
Last meeting: July 29, 2026 — the Fed held the target range at 3.50%–3.75%.
The 10-year Treasury
10-year Treasury yield, daily
Source: FRED (10-year Treasury constant maturity, DGS10).
Columbus mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury far more closely than the Fed's own rate. When the market grows confident the Fed will cut, the 10-year usually eases first, and local mortgage rates follow it down before the meeting arrives.
What else the prediction markets are pricing.
Rather than predict a number, here’s what the market watches. Mortgage rates ease when these line up — and hold or climb when they don’t:
- Cooling inflation. Softer CPI and PCE readings let the fall, and mortgage rates follow it down.
- A weaker labor market. Rising unemployment and slower hiring push the market to price in Fed sooner.
- A falling 10-year yield.Because your mortgage tracks the 10-year, it’s the single number to watch — it moves ahead of the Fed.
- A narrowing mortgage spread. The gap between the 10-year and the 30-year mortgage is unusually wide; if it normalizes, rates fall even with no move from the Fed.
None of these is a forecast. They’re the levers — the odds above are the market’s live read on how likely they are to move.
These are market-implied odds, not our forecast. reads them from interest-rate futures; the prediction-market column reads them from money wagered on the outcome. They move daily and they can be wrong — they describe the crowd’s current bet, not a guarantee.
The Fed sets a short-term rate; your mortgage tracks the , which usually moves ahead of the Fed as the market prices a move in. That’s why mortgage rates often ease before a cut actually lands — and why waiting for the meeting can mean waiting past the move.
Market odds set the backdrop; a conversation turns them into a plan for your rate, your timeline, and your budget.