Are rates coming down?
Nobody can promise where go next, so instead of guessing, this shows what the market itself is pricing: the odds on the Fed’s next move, where the sits today, and why Columbus rates tend to move before the Fed does.
That’s about 46 bps higher than a month ago.
Odds of a Fed rate change
Two forecast methodologies, priced live.
The 10-year Treasury
10-year Treasury yield, daily
Source: FRED (10-year Treasury constant maturity, DGS10).
Columbus mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury far more closely than the Fed's own rate. When the market grows confident the Fed will cut, the 10-year usually eases first, and local mortgage rates follow it down before the meeting arrives.
What else the prediction markets are pricing.
Rather than predict a number, here’s what the market watches. Mortgage rates ease when these line up, and hold or climb when they don’t:
- Cooling inflation. Softer CPI and PCE readings let the fall, and mortgage rates follow it down.
- A weaker labor market. Rising unemployment and slower hiring push the market to price in Fed sooner.
- A falling 10-year yield.Because your mortgage tracks the 10-year, it’s the single number to watch. It moves ahead of the Fed.
- A narrowing mortgage spread. The gap between the 10-year and the 30-year mortgage is unusually wide; if it normalizes, rates fall even with no move from the Fed.
None of these is a forecast. They’re the levers. The odds above are the market’s live read on how likely they are to move.
These are market-implied odds, not our forecast. reads them from interest-rate futures; the prediction-market column reads them from money wagered on the outcome. They move daily and they can be wrong. They describe the crowd’s current bet, not a guarantee.
The Fed sets a short-term rate; your mortgage tracks the , which usually moves ahead of the Fed as the market prices a move in. That’s why mortgage rates often ease before a cut actually lands, and why waiting for the meeting can mean waiting past the move.
Market odds set the backdrop; a conversation turns them into a plan for your rate, your timeline, and your budget.